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Haven’t we heard this before? (War in Ukraine - Part 3)

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On 30th September 1939, Stalin’s Soviet Union attacked Finland with vastly superior military strength, historically known as the ‘Winter War’.
Looking from today’s point of view, let me summarize few relevant facts below:

  • Soviets had calculated the war to finish in maximum 2 weeks. In reality the war lasted more than 3 months. 
  • Soviets claimed they suffered minimal losses, while in fact they suffered 6 times higher casualties than the Finns. 
  • Soviet propaganda, as well as Soviet historiography, did not call the conflict the “Soviet-Finnish war” and, in general, “war”, instead, euphemical expressions were used: “Finnish campaign of the Red Army”, “liberation campaign in Finland”, "repulse of Finnish aggression", etc. The Soviet press and radio abroad and inside the country asserted through all channels that "the Soviet Union is not at war with Finland".
  • Initial plan of Soviets was to take whole of Finland. After facing the unexpectedly fierce Finnish resistance, the Soviets reorganized, and renewed their offensive limited only on the Eastern part of Finland.
  • Soviet propaganda was that the invasion of Finland was to protect St. Petersburg from a future foreign attack coming via Finland and the fear that Finnish forces could restrict Soviet fleet movements.
  • Soviet propaganda named Finnish leadership as ‘Fascists’ ('Nazis' were not a commonly used word then).
  • In 1932, the Soviets had signed a non-Aggression Pact with Finland.
  • On 26th November 1939, the Soviets conducted a false flag operation. Soviet historians had described the incident as Finnish provocation then but later even Putin had mentioned that it was indeed a Soviet operation.
  • On 30.09.1939, Soviets attacked Finland from four fronts and started with bombing Helsinki. They killed civilians and destroyed more than 50 buildings. Soviet Foreign Minister Molotov stated to the world, that Soviet army never attacks civilians and they were dropping humanitarian aid to starving Finns.

 In the end, Finland lost more than 9% of its territory. It became part of the international community and ended up having a living standard 200 times higher than the territory which was taken by the Soviets. They got international recognition while Soviets were shunned. 

For Soviets, the results were less rosy. Poor performance of Soviet forces emboldened Hitler to commence Operation Barbarossa, the attack of Soviet Union and we all know of the devastation that followed. 

Historical events never repeat in the same way. To start with, we live in 2022 and not 1939. Yet I believe that we can learn a lot, because the historical trends and patterns usually seem to repeat. So in conclusion, looking forward, the future of Present Russia is very unfavorable.

In its South, China is studying the poor performance of the Russian army and their international isolation. Putin should remember that the German-Soviet non-Aggression Pact did not protect Soviet Union from getting attacked by Germans. In addition, just like Nazi Germany, China greatly covets the minerals and oil rich territories of Russia. Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if China slowly makes it first move towards annexation of Russian territories.

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